2016 based Population Projections for Northern Ireland

National population projections by age and gender are produced every two years for the UK and each of the UK constituent countries by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on behalf of the National Statistician and the Registrars General of Scotland and Northern Ireland. Principal Projections are produced based on long-term assumptions about future fertility, mortality and migration levels, with variant projections being produced from various alternative assumptions – usually in the form of high/low variants and their combinations. National population projections provide an estimate of the future size and age structure of the population of Northern Ireland. Population projections are widely used in policy development in areas such as housing, healthcare and education.

Data and Resources

Additional Info

Field Value
Creation Date January 18, 2018, 15:10 (UTC)
Topic Category Society
Lineage

These statistics present the 2016-based population projections for Northern Ireland by gender and single year of age (0 to 125) from mid-2016 to mid-2066. The main projection is referred to as the “Principal Projection”, and is based on assumptions regarding future fertility, mortality and net migration. Variant projections are also included, which account for alternative, but generally plausible variations in the defined assumptions.

Variables:

Geo_Name: refers to a geographical area.

Geo_Code: refers to the geographical code associated with the area. (e.g. N92000002 refers to Northern Ireland).

Projection_Name: refers to the name for the projection.

Projection_Code: refers to the code associated with the projection (e.g. PPP refers to Principal Projection).

Mid_Year_Ending: Population projections refer to the projected number of people in the population at 30th June each year.

Gender: Population projections are provided for Males, Females and All People.

Age: The age range for the population projections is single years from 0 to 125.

Population_Projection: refers to the projected population size

Frequency of Update Irregular
Contact Name NISRA – Demographic Statistics
Contact Email census@nisra.gov.uk
Additional Information

Projections are the result of applying long-term assumptions based on recent trends in fertility, mortality and migration to the base population. These projections use the mid-2016 population estimates as the base population. See the Quality and Methodology Information report for further Information: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/methodologies/nationalpopulationprojectionsqmi

These projections are not forecasts and do not attempt to predict the impact that future government policies, changing economic circumstances or other factors might have on demographic behaviour.

When considering these projections it should be noted that their degree of reliability is closely associated with their proximity to the base year (mid-2016). For example, long-term fertility assumptions are applied to a female population that hasn’t been born yet in mid-2016, which affects the number of births in the long run.

Further information on Northern Ireland population projections is available at: https://www.nisra.gov.uk/statistics/population/national-population-projections

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