Population Projections for areas within Northern Ireland: 2016-based

Following the publication of Northern Ireland level population projections, NISRA subsequently produces official sub-national population projections for areas within Northern Ireland. These sub-national projections are based on 2016 mid-year estimates and assumptions regarding future fertility, mortality and migration for areas within Northern Ireland. In keeping with past practice, these local level projections are constrained to the most recent Northern Ireland level population projections. Projections are available for both current and former Local Government Districts, Health and Social Care Trusts and former Education and Library Boards.

Data and Resources

Additional Info

Field Value
Creation Date April 26, 2018, 09:22 (UTC)
Topic Category Society
Lineage

These statistics present the 2016-based population projections for areas within Northern Ireland by gender and single year of age (0 to 90 and over) from mid-2016 to mid-2041.

Variables:

Geo_Name: refers to a geographical area.

Geo_Code: refers to the geographical code associated with the area. (e.g. N09000001 refers to Antrim and Newtownabbey).

Mid_Year_Ending: Population projections refer to the projected number of people in the population at 30th June each year.

Gender: Population projections are provided for Males, Females and All People.

Age: The age range for the population projections is single years from 0 to 89. In addition, there is an upper age band of “90 and over”. Note that “90 and over” is represented by the integer value of 90 in order to maintain a numeric data type for this variable.

Population_Projection: refers to the projected population size.

Frequency of Update Irregular
Contact Name NISRA – Demographic Statistics
Contact Email census@nisra.gov.uk
Additional Information

Projections are the result of applying long-term assumptions based on recent trends in fertility, mortality and migration to the base population. These projections use the mid-2016 population estimates as the base population. See the Quality and Methodology Information report for further Information: https://www.nisra.gov.uk/sites/nisra.gov.uk/files/publications/SNPP16-Methodology.pdf.

These projections are not forecasts and do not attempt to predict the impact that future government policies, changing economic circumstances or other factors might have on demographic behaviour.

When considering these projections it should be noted that their degree of reliability is closely associated with their proximity to the base year (mid-2016). For example, long-term fertility assumptions are applied to a female population that hasn’t been born yet in mid-2016, which affects the number of births in the long run.

Further information on Population Projections for areas within Northern Ireland is available at: https://www.nisra.gov.uk/publications/2016-based-population-projections-areas-within-northern-ireland

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